Severe flooding could displace up to three million people in Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda by the end of 2026, the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, has warned. Forecasts point to a very strong El Niño that could bring heavier rains to the region, The Eastleigh Voice reported. The warning comes in the middle of East Africa's October to December rainy season.
Heavy rain during this season could push rivers over their banks. Homes and farmland could flood, forcing families to move to safer ground. UNHCR said the final number of displaced people will depend on how severe the rains and floods become.
The agency released its report on Friday, ahead of the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Türkiye. It said climate change is making life harder for people who have already fled conflict and persecution. According to UNHCR, nearly 90 million displaced people worldwide live in countries highly exposed to floods, drought and extreme heat.
Antón Leis García, UNHCR's Assistant High Commissioner for Operations, said refugees face "a double injustice". He said they fled conflicts they did not cause and now stand on the frontlines of a climate crisis they did least to create.
The report found that weather-related disasters caused more than 255 million internal displacements worldwide over the past decade. That is about 70,000 every day. Returning home does not end the danger either. UNHCR said more than two-thirds of refugees who returned in the first half of 2026 went back to countries highly exposed to climate hazards.
Heat is a growing threat to refugee settlements, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. UNHCR estimates that by 2050, one in three settlements in the region could face at least 100 days of dangerous heat a year. The report also said nearly 90% of the world's 4.7 million reported stateless people live in countries with high or extreme climate hazards.
Fragile and conflict-hit countries receive only around 10% of global climate finance, according to the agency. García said the money must reach the communities with the greatest needs. He added that refugees and their hosts "must be part of these investments, not an afterthought". UNHCR wants governments and climate-finance institutions to include displaced people in national climate plans. COP31 runs in Antalya from November 9 to 20.