NCBA cuts Kenya’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.8 per cent
NCBA Group now expects Kenya's economy to grow 4.8 per cent in 2026, down from 5.1 per cent. The lender cited global shocks, fiscal strain and the coming election, and expects a recovery in 2027.
NCBA Group has cut its forecast for Kenya's economic growth this year to 4.8 per cent, from an earlier 5.1 per cent. The lender presented the revised outlook on Tuesday at the NCBA Economic Forum 2026 in Nairobi, The Eastleigh Voice reported. It expects growth of between 4.0 and 5.0 per cent in 2027, supported by investment, structural reforms and stronger productive capacity. The bank blamed the weaker outlook on global political tensions, swings in commodity prices, changing weather patterns and the upcoming General Election. It warned that external shocks and tight public finances could undermine the economy's recent momentum. NCBA Group Managing Director John Gachora said the economy had stayed resilient. However, he warned that its ability to absorb repeated shocks was shrinking. He listed the crisis in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, sudden monetary tightening in several key economies and volatile sovereign bond markets. "Our capacity to absorb successive shocks is not limitless," Gachora said. Treasury CS John Mbadi gave a more upbeat forecast for 2027. He said the government projects 5.1 per cent growth, with inflation within target and a stable shilling. According to…
Read more 3 min read