El Niño may not bring the heavy rains many expected, at least not to Nairobi. Some areas may have to wait longer for the rains, said Richard Muita, deputy director of Eastern Region Meteorological Services. Some may not get them at all. He spoke on Spice FM on Wednesday, Kenyans.co.ke reported.
Muita said El Niño drives weather patterns around the world but does not guarantee rain. According to Kenyans.co.ke, he said the World Meteorological Organisation had put the likelihood of El Niño at near 100 per cent. That raised hopes of heavier than normal rains. But the outcome also depends on the Indian Ocean Dipole, he said, whose main indicator is sea temperature off the East African coast. When the Indian Ocean runs warmer than normal alongside El Niño, Kenya can get a lot of rain. When it is cooler, the rains are weaker.
Muita pointed to 2015 as an example. That year brought a strong El Niño, but a weak Indian Ocean meant less rain than expected. "We are looking at a similar scenario at the moment," he said. Kisumu and other areas have already had heavy rain, with flooding and damaged property, Kenyans.co.ke reported.
The agency's weekly forecast still points to a wet week. According to The Star, Kenya Met expects rain in parts of all 47 counties from November 10 to 16 as the short rains pick up. Nairobi, Kiambu, Machakos, Kajiado and Murang'a are among the counties forecast to get morning, afternoon and night showers. Afternoon thunderstorms are likely across much of western Kenya and the Rift Valley, including Kisumu, Kakamega, Nakuru and Kericho.
Parts of the country will also swelter. Daytime temperatures are expected to top 35°C in parts of Garissa, Wajir, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana. Night temperatures could drop below 10°C in parts of Meru, Nyeri, Nyandarua and Nakuru.
The Star reported that fear of El Niño is growing in Nairobi, where heavy rain on March 6 caused floods that killed 60 people. A Kibera resident told the BBC that the houses there "aren't made of stone" and could collapse or flood. Kenya Met said it is still too early to say whether the whole country will get the rains. It urged the government and the public to keep preparing and to follow weather updates.