South Africa is heading into a hotter, drier summer as an intense El Niño takes hold. Large grain stocks should still protect consumers from supply shortages and price rises in 2027, according to Wandile Sihlobo. Sihlobo is South Africa's Agriculture and Land Envoy and chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa. He set out his analysis in a column for Daily Maverick.
Sihlobo wrote that forecasters see this as one of the most intense El Niño periods. The hot, dry conditions are expected to last through the first quarter of 2027. A heatwave is already spreading across the country. Even so, planting of the 2026-27 summer grain and oilseed crops is going well. A long 2025-26 rain season and good September rains in some areas left the soil moist. Many farmers are planting early to make use of it.
Crop Estimates Committee data released on October 27 shows farmers plan to plant 4.5 million hectares of summer grain and oilseed. That is 2% less than in 2025-26 but in line with the five-year average. The crops include white and yellow maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and beans. Sihlobo said the data suggests farmers may cut maize area more than other crops. He added that the drought and higher fertiliser and fuel prices have not put farmers off in a big way.
The bigger cushion is the last harvest. The committee raised its 2025-26 maize estimate by 1% from the September figure to 17.7 million tonnes. That is up 6% on the year before and the largest on record. On top of that, about 2.4 million tonnes of stocks were on hand at the start of the season. South Africa consumes about 12 million tonnes of maize a year.
These supplies have helped keep maize prices down despite fears of drought. Sihlobo wrote that white maize traded at around R3,700 per tonne and yellow maize at around R3,800 per tonne at the end of October. A month earlier, prices were above R4,000 per tonne.
Lower prices help consumers but hurt farmers, who are still paying more for inputs, Sihlobo noted. He expects prices to rise as maize demand in southern Africa picks up. In early 2027, the country will rely mostly on 2025-26 supplies. The new season's crop will shape supplies from mid-2027. He said major risks to yields remain and the weather outlook will be watched closely.