The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) once ruled Ethiopia. Now it is losing support among former backers in northern Tigray, according to AFP interviews published by The Standard. The shift follows a failed offensive against federal forces.
In late September, the TPLF joined other armed groups in an offensive to "overthrow" Ethiopia's federal leaders. Pro-government forces quickly repelled it with drones. The party was forced out of major towns and retreated to the region's hills. From there, it occasionally attacks federal troops. In October, federal authorities formally took control of Tigray. They set up a six-month interim administration and promised to organise elections.
Eritrea also played a role. It fought alongside Ethiopia against the TPLF in the 2020-2022 war, then fell out with its neighbour. In October, Eritrea deployed thousands of troops in Tigray to support the party. Drone strikes by the Ethiopian army forced them to retreat. For many Tigrayans, the alliance with Eritrea revived memories of abuses by Eritrean forces in the last war.
Tsegay Girmay, 32, from Adigrat, joined the TPLF in 2020. He told AFP he does not believe the party has "the slightest chance" of returning to power. Genet Hailu, a resident of Mekelle, called the cooperation with Eritrea a "mistake". She also condemned forced recruitment by the TPLF, which AFP and Human Rights Watch have documented. She said the party had forced children to join the army. Natnael Gebregziabher, 35, said mistakes by the party's leaders had put people in serious danger.
Not everyone has turned away. Gebremichael Abebe, 52, from Axum, said he opposes the alliance with Eritrea but still backs the party. He said he fears the federal government wants to destroy Tigrayans. He believes the TPLF will return to power. TPLF vice president Amanuel Assefa dismissed the criticism. He asked AFP how people could reproach a party "that is sacrificing itself for them".
The TPLF led the rebellion that toppled the Derg regime in 1991. It then ruled Ethiopia until 2018, although Tigrayans make up barely six percent of the population. The party was banned in 2025, several years after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power. Kjetil Tronvoll, a Horn of Africa specialist at Oslo New University College, said the party's future depends on its capacity for self-reflection. It also depends on how the federal government acts in Tigray, he said.