The El Nino system is present and still strengthening, the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) said on Sunday. TMA Director General Dr Ladislaus Chang'a told reporters that rains will intensify in November and into December, Mwananchi reported. He said this matches the agency's forecasts of August 18 and October 23.
Chang'a said the whole country is now in its rainy season. Data from Saturday morning showed rain falling in many areas, with the Tanga station recording 57 millimetres. In the Lake Victoria zone, which covers Kagera, Geita, Shinyanga, Mwanza and Mara, the rains started on schedule. Some areas received above-average rainfall, including Bukoba in Kagera.
Rain is also falling as forecast in the northeastern highlands and along the northern coast. That area covers Tanga, Dar es Salaam, Pwani, Mafia, Unguja, Pemba and northern Morogoro. Regions with a single rainy season, from November to April, are also starting to get rain. They include the western zone of Tabora, Kigoma and Katavi, the south, and the southwestern highlands of Iringa, Njombe, Songwe and Mbeya.
Chang'a urged the public to follow TMA updates and heed its warnings. He said the agency's forecasts are more than 88 percent accurate. Arusha resident Neema Saitoti told Mwananchi that early warnings give families time to protect themselves and their property. She said they also help farmers plan planting and harvesting, and asked the agency to keep its updates simple.
The warning comes as Tanzania prepares to host an international meeting of 300 climate change scientists from 75 countries. Prime Minister Dr Mwigulu Nchemba is expected to open it on Monday, and it runs in Arusha until November 6. Chang'a said the meeting is part of preparations for the Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
AR7 covers global warming, greenhouse gas emissions and extreme weather such as heavy rain, strong winds, heatwaves, drought, floods and El Nino. Chang'a said scientists are studying whether these events will keep increasing, and by how much. The findings are expected before the end of 2029. The World Meteorological Organization and the UN Environment Programme set up the IPCC in 1988 to assess scientific evidence on climate change.